MBABANE-MANZINI COVID-19 HIGH ZONE

MBABANE – The Mbabane-Manzini corridor is the highest COVID-19 transmission area due to its dense population.
This is contained in a study conducted by University of Eswatini lecturer Wisdom Dlamini, titled ‘Using geographic information systems to assist in risk assessment and response’.

Dlamini used a transmission risk map, which was developed using human population density and a spatial interaction index derived from annual average daily traffic density (i.e. traffic volumes per square kilometre), to make his analysis.

He said areas with high transmission were the densely populated urban and peri-urban areas that were also characterised by high traffic volumes or connectivity. He said such areas included the Mbabane-Manzini corridor.

Investigate

“Geographic information system (GIS) technology underpins mapping dashboards and provides the means to investigate and understand the spread, guide control measures, and assess strategies for COVID-19 response,” says the study.

He said the maps did not predict who or how many people would get infected or die from the coronavirus but rather they were intended to assist in raising awareness and complement the government’s efforts on response design including putting measures in place to minimise the spread of the virus in the country.
Dlamini said efforts to minimise transmission, such as increasing hand sanitising stations, cancelling large group events, and dispersing information about best practices for reducing transmission, would be most important in the places associated with the areas with high transmission risk.

He added that it had been observed that many people who contracted COVID-19 would have mild symptoms, and most people would recover completely. He said currently, children and adults had been observed to generally recover well, but mortality rates were high for older adults and those suffering from existing chronic illnesses.

“In addition, the risk increases where large numbers of susceptible people live in densely populated areas. For this analysis, susceptibility was estimated using the population of elderly people (60+ years) per 1 000, population density, estimated HIV prevalence and poverty incidence,” he said.

Dlamini said another concern regarding the COVID-19 outbreak was that healthcare resources would become strained; possibly increasing the outbreak’s negative effects hence there was also a need to determine the areas at highest risk for healthcare resource scarcity.

He said the high resource scarcity risk areas were the places least prepared to deal with large numbers of COVID-19 cases among the most vulnerable populations.

Overwhelmed

“If COVID-19 were to spread rapidly in Eswatini, its possible healthcare resources will be quickly overwhelmed. Having a plan in place to ramp up healthcare resources such as proposed quarantine sites, test kits, ventilators, and protective clothing and masks will be essential for such areas,” he added.
On March 17, 2020, Eswatini declared the spread of the virus as a national emergency, resulting in the formulation of strategies to prepare and respond to COVID-19 with an overarching goal of limiting human-to-human transmission of the virus.

This is particularly important for the country with a vulnerable economy and a significant population with underlying medical conditions.
Eswatini has so far recorded 15 cases, the major source of which was initially South Africa (Gauteng and Kwazulu-Natal). Other source countries included the USA and to a lesser extent, Italy. The initial local transmission was suspected to have been a result of interaction with individuals originating from China.

“However, a number of local transmissions are increasingly being reported, indicating the increasing risk of transmission within the country,” says the study.
According to the Ministry of Health, the country currently has 15 confirmed cases and seven of those are from Manzini while five are from Hhohho. Two of them are expatriates. Six of them have a travel history to South Africa while others have travelled to USA, Italy and others have history of contact with visitors from China.

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