LOCKDOWN: AT WHAT COST?

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Following the mass lockdowns implemented by many countries across the globe in the midst of a coronavirus outbreak, numerous governments have found themselves running to the dreaded International Monetary Fund (IMF) for help.

Last week, the IMF reported that about 50 low-income countries had already approached the fund for relief assistance as the lockdowns continue to bring economies to their knees.

The African Union is predicting 20 million job losses in Africa by year-end. This is the flip side of the lockdown life-saving measures that many governments now have to battle with. 
Rwanda has already obtained a E2.05 billion, loan from IMF after a lockdown brought the country’s economy to a halt, creating an urgent balance of payment needs.

Eswatini has also adopted the world-wide approach of a lockdown, albeit partially without fiscal relief, which has literally turned off the life support of thousands of small and medium enterprises and their dependants who are now without jobs or any means of livelihood while stuck indoors with almost nothing to eat. With no cure or vaccine for the outbreak in sight, the lockdowns are set to continue for months. At what cost to our livelihoods? We are only in the first phase of the COVID-19 infection curve that has taken hard-hit countries more than four months to flatten. So what do we do?

Do we run to IMF or rethink our lockdown strategy. South Africa has not been stubborn in reconsidering trade in the informal sector; spaza shops and the transport industry because the situation on the ground warranted it. Renowned economist Ricardo Hausmann has asked the question; “At the limit, people will have to decide between a 10 per cent chance of dying from the virus and 100 per cent chance of starving to death. Unsustainable situations cannot last so you will eventually need to resume production, but how?”

If government can state when we are likely to resume production and answer the ‘how’ with a sustainable economic recovery strategy that can save lives and avert austerity measures that come with IMF bailouts, then by all means it should put it on the table for all to see. If not, we need to consider investing our meagre resources into getting the life support up and running while strictly monitoring that the businesses adhere to hygiene practices to ensure that we save lives and not destroy our livelihood.

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