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ESWATINI NEEDS POLITICAL FORECASTERS

09/12/2023 07:05:00 Mfanukhona Nkambule

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A country without political forecasters is like a church without a prophet.

It lacks direction and misses crucial messages. I cannot blame my fellow emaSwati for lacking this very crucial personality trait. How I wish I also have it! The school system does not provide lessons on political science, comparative politics as a field of political science, international relations, justice and philosophy.

In Eswatini, I am yet to see a tertiary institution with a ‘fully fledged’ Faculty of Political Science and International Relations, Faculty of Philosophy and Justice Studies.The only liberal course we have is law and history. Journalists are fortunate that they are exposed to a variety of disciplines. They interact with a host of professionals. Overall, the education system does not produce forecasters and scientists in politics. I am lacking as well. This is what the late Mhlatane High School Head teacher and Liqoqo member Michael ‘Waqunga’ Dlamini used to complain about. He was of the view that political science should be taught at secondary school.

Recognisably, we do have politicians and political leaders in our beautiful country. It is important though that I mention that political leadership is not defined by a book. Instead, it is defined by us as a nation. It is a pity that a nation that does not have political forecasters is sitting on a ticking time bomb. It is always reactionary to calamities and it is always vulnerable to political shocks. A nation with forecasters is proactive. Politics is like weather. It keeps on changing. Therefore, it is critically important that we subject it to regular forecasts. If Eswatini had forecasters, they would have long predicted how emaSwati may conduct themselves at the People’s Parliament of 2028 or 2033.

Importance

In fact, a think-tank with excellent advisory skills, honest and loyal to emaSwati and their leaders, would have analysed and provided data for the political consciousness of our future generations. In 2012 and 2016, William Mkhaliphi from Vuvulane spoke his mind about issues of national importance. He was 82 years in 2016. He was not just a young man but he openly criticised the royal family inside the cattle byre.

Reports emerged that he was assaulted by police after he had made his submissions. His wife, Ntombi Lessiah Dlamini, was terribly heartbroken when she saw her husband being attacked by the law enforcers. She later collapsed and died from a stroke-related illness. Mkhaliphi alleged that his wife was affected by the incident wherein she saw police trampling upon her husband. Mkhaliphi was adamant that his wife would still be alive were it not for the abuse he suffered at the hands of the police. His sin, he said, was openly talking about issues that affected farmers around Vuvulane.

That was very bad of us a country to condone this unprofessional police conduct. Let me return to the subject. If you want to learn the skill of political forecasting, one ought to start with the basics: “Will Cyril Ramaphosa win the 2024 presidential elections in South Africa?” The question ‘why do you say that’ leads you to the acquisition of excellent political forecasting skills.

Why did Mkhaliphi speak like this? How many Mkhaliphis will attend Sibaya in 2018, 2023, 2028 or how many liberal minds the country shall have among the traditional regiments? I foresee members of Inyatsi and other regiments speaking undiluted politics in 2033. Instead of forecasting the future, the police assaulted Mkhaliphi for exercising his constitutional right to freedom of expression. Eswatini has a youthful population and the literacy rate is improving. Jobs that were previously reserved for Standard Two dropouts are now being occupied by those who completed Form V certificate holders.

I know of several university graduates who are public transport drivers. When Sibaya probably reconvenes next year, a good forecaster will tell you that it may be dominated by liberal minds. They will openly question sacred cultures and politics of the country. They will speak about these issues inside the cattle byre. Let’s briefly analyse the 2023 People’s Parliament to get to know what I am talking about. Inside the cattle byre, some people exercised bravery and called for the release of former members of Parliament Mduduzi Bacede Mabuza and Mthandeni Dube.

Appreciation

Responding to a question on who should be appointed into the office of prime minister, they suggested that the King should appoint self-exiled Mduduzi ‘Gawuzela’ Simelane. They knew Simelane is a fugitive from law. Without fear, they suggested that the former Siphofaneni MP should return to the country to lead government. Our analysis must not only be bias towards those who made such a submission but the receivers. How did they receive the message? It’s a fact that they were not booed but some people clapped hands in apparent appreciation of what they had submitted to the leaders of the country. . Mind you, we were made to understand that the appointing authority was listening to the submissions. Were they heckling? Certainly not! They knew the appointing authority would not accept this recommendation. They only wanted to send a statement. This is the very statement that must teach us to predict the future. Ten years ago, such a statement would not have been made inside the cattle byre.

What has changed?

If we were to predict or forecast correctly or incorrectly, Sibaya is becoming a liberal platform. I would not be surprised at hearing political slogans being chanted inside Sibaya. It is time that we sit down and devise a good political strategy for the country. The political economy of the country is in our hands and we are keeping it for the future generations. Sometime ago, I hinted on the seven generation stewardship. I urged the nation to embrace this concept. It is a concept that urges the current generation of humans to live and work for the benefit of the seventh generation into the future. If you are a minister today, you create a working environment for the politician who shall be in charge of your current ministry in the year 2100.

The Seventh Generation Principle, therefore, is based on an ancient Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) philosophy that the decisions we make today should result in a sustainable world seven generations into the future. Current humans in power should bear in good mind that whatever decision they take, they are basically taking resolutions that will affect the future leaders of the country. I mean those who will be in charge of Eswatini in 2100 or 2170 when all of us living in the present would have long died. Incorporating this concept into our economic and political system definitely speak to the concept of good political forecasting.

Why 10 senators didn’t campaign?

Four women representing regions have been elected to the House of Assembly. They are now lawful legislators entrusted with the responsibility to serve the interests of emaSwati. In terms of Section 86 (1) of the Constitution of the Kingdom of Swaziland (Eswatini), the House of Assembly shall form itself into an electoral college and elect four women on a regional basis. This occurs when it does appear that female members of Parliament do not constitute 30 per cent of the total membership.

According to the Constitution, the list of nominated candidates shall be published in at least two local newspapers and the electronic media on at least three consecutive days. After 10 days from the date of last publication, the House shall meet to vote for one woman from each of the regions. Electoral procedure is spelt out in the supreme law and I am happy with this arrangement. The Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC), which is in charge of the elections, also delegated powers to Parliament to introduce campaigns for the candidates. Prior to election day; the electoral college had been made to understand and analyse the candidates’ legal knowledge, understanding of society and culture, verbal communication skills, analytical thinking skills and the ability to think clearly using logic and reasoning.

They knew who they should elect to represent Manzini, Hhohho, Shiselweni and Lubombo. It may be a valid argument and a very compelling school of thought that the majority rule compromises quality. If quality is guaranteed in an election system or in a democracy setting, Dr. Comfort Shongwe, Vusi Mkhumane, Gideon Mhlongo, Mphilo Dlamini, among others, would be members of Parliament. Therefore, I put it to the world that popularity shall always define the outcome of an election.

If quality is guaranteed, five backbenchers would be Cabinet ministers. The model of democracy that we adopted as Africa promotes quantity.
Emerson P argues that many societies take decisions, even the most complex decisions, by reducing what should be a selection of options to a stark choice. I agree with him. After I had witnessed the election of the four women to Parliament and how they campaigned, I still don’t understand why the same system was never used during the election of the 10 senators.

They should have been given an opportunity to campaign. Only the King’s appointees do not have the privilege to market their personal manifestos to the Electoral College. Where elections are held, it is important that we ascribe to the principles of elections. The 10 senators would have spent some money, if they had, on their campaigns. The nation was made to understand that some candidates ended up using the power of money to amass votes from certain members of the Electoral College.

Violation

Section 94 (2) of the Constitution gave legislators the greenlight to introduce a law that would govern the elections of senators. However, they did not include the campaign period in the Senate Elections Act of 2013. That was absolutely in violation of the principles of democracy. It meant that candidates would campaign clandestinely. Reads Section 94 (2) of the Constitution: “Ten senators, at least half of whom shall be female, shall be elected by the members of the House in such manner as may be prescribed by or under any law at their first meeting so as to represent a cross section of the Swazi society.”

The Senate Elections Act is so poor that it only talks about voting, secret ballot, ballot boxes, ballot papers and other things that do not represent the quality that we so desire to have in Senate. Section 5 (1) of the Senate Elections Act reads: “When the House of Assembly first meets after any general election and as soon as the House shall have elected a person to be speaker in terms of Section 102 of the Constitution, the House shall immediately proceed to the business of the election of senators.”So fast!

When did the speaker hold his campaign? When are the 10 senators going to campaign? “On the day of nomination, the speaker shall call for nominations of candidates for election in the female and male category,” Subsection 2 reads. It goes on to say that “An unsuccessful candidate in the recent general election shall not be considered for nomination and every candidate for election shall be proposed by a member and seconded by another member.” We must think about amending the Act to accommodate the campaigns.