BE PREPARED FOR CORONAVIRUS

WHEN new viruses emerge, alarm bells ring in the halls of international health authorities, whose job is to plan for such emergencies. The nightmare scenario they plan for is the reappearance of a killer influenza pandemic like the one that struck in 1918.

The current Wuhan coronavirus appeared in late December 2019; initially in Wuhan, China seafood market. That market doubles as a live animal market with a variety of small and medium size animals for sale. This is the seventh coronavirus known to infect man, but many more coronaviruses infect animals. Most people have heard of either SARS or MERS.

Viruses that emerge into the human population by jumping the species barrier, like HIV, Ebola, SARS and MERS originate from various animal reservoirs of those viruses. The origin of HIV-I was from chimpanzees, and HIV-II was from macaque monkeys. SARS was originally traced back to civet cats and MERS was first found harboured in camels. With much additional effort virologists eventually traced both SARS and MERS back to their original animal reservoir source, bats; just like with Ebola. This commonality is not surprising since there are hundreds of species of bats, more than all land-based mammals. The coronavirus might yet be traced back to bats.

Virus

When a new virus suddenly jumps species and causes an epidemic in humans, public health authorities want to know two major things. First, how easily does the virus spread from one person to another? That is, how contagious is it? Secondly, they want to know how lethal it is. What percentage of people it infects will die?

The Wuhan coronavirus is spreading very fast through human to human transmission. In just one month, cases have been reported in all parts of China except Tibet. It has already spread to 18 countries. Drastic efforts by the Chinese government to quarantine Wuhan plus the surrounding area have not prevented viral transmission across the entire nation. Unfortunately, the disease started spreading just before the Chinese New Year’s celebration when millions of Chinese return to their home provinces from metropolitan areas like Wuhan. Given the virus’s rapid spread to all parts of China and its early spread to other countries, the world is probably looking at a major international pandemic that could last two years or longer. Most countries are not prepared.

The Wuhan coronavirus is 10 times as deadly as the typical influenza infection; in part because humans have no innate immune resistance to this novel virus. Due to human-to-human transmission confirmed in several countries, on January 30th the World Health Organization declared this epidemic a public health emergency of international concern.

Given its brief history the Wuhan coronavirus should arrive in Africa before the end of February, mostly likely first in Ethiopia, South Africa or Nigeria. From there it should spread continent-wide within six months. Importantly, there is no vaccine for the virus, but scientists have already begun to work on one. An effective vaccine will take a minimum of six to nine months to develop, plus more time to distribute. It could take much longer. That will not help those caught in the first wave of this looming pandemic. That could mean you. Given how rapidly this virus is spreading it should reach most Southern African countries within a few months. It pays to be prepared. This is especially true of people who work in hospitals and health clinics who are most likely to come in contact with this disease. Healthcare workers are often the biggest victims in epidemics.

If you are sick and coughing or sneezing, wear a face mask to avoid spreading germs. Wash hands with soap as needed. There is no specific drug that is effective against the virus, so the best and easiest way to protect yourself is to make sure your immune system is functioning 100 per cent. People can do that by taking selenium nutritional supplements. ‘Be prepared’ is not just a Boy Scout motto, it is sage advice in any epidemic.

                                               

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