2.1% ANNUAL GROWTH FOR ESWATINI

MBABANE - The country’s economy fell to -0.3 per cent in the last quarter (October- December), translating into an annualised growth rate of 2.1 per cent.

An increase of at least 0.1 per cent had been recorded in 2021 quarter three.   This is as per a report sourced from the Ministry of Economic Planning and Development. The year-on -year (Y-Y) seasonally adjusted 2021 Q4 shows an increase of 2.1 per cent compared to a growth of 3.2 per cent in the previous year (2020 quarter four). The Y-Y growth measures the rate of change of corresponding quarters in subsequent years. The Real Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) indicated an increase of 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 (seasonally adjusted year on year) following a growth of 3.9 percent in the third quarter of the past year.

The primary sector which contributed 10 per cent to total Industries in the fourth quarter of 2021 shows an increase of 4.2 per cent year-on-year. The realised growth was due to an increase in animal production (10 per cent) and forestry (32 per cent). The secondary sector which contributed 36 per cent to total Industries indicates an increase of 5.1 per cent in 2021 quarter four. The growth in this sector is mainly due to an increase in manufacturing and water and sewerage by seven and nine, respectively. The tertiary sector which contributed 53 per cent of total Industries shows an overall decline of -1.6 per cent in 2021 quarter four year-on-year. This decline was mainly contributed by industries that include wholesale and retail trade (-6 per cent); professional, scientific and technical activities (-7); and public administration and defence; compulsory social security (-2 per cent).

In his budget speech in February this Minister of Finance Neal Rijkenberg had said in line with the global developments, the domestic economy was reflecting significant signs of recovery.  The minister said following a contraction in economic activity by 1.9 per cent in 2020, economic growth was expected to rebound by 5.9 percent in 2021, which had been revised up from an initial estimate of 1.3 percent.  The 2021 annual GDP figures will be released later this year. Compared to South Africa, the country has only achieved a better quarterly growth rate in the period January to March (1.9 per cent). This was before the June civil unrest that left most businesses destroyed.  South Africa’s first quarter GDP results were at 1.0 per cent.

An economist, on condition of anonymity, told this publication that the slow growth could have been caused by the effects of the destruction of some business during the June 2021 civil unrest. Most of the hurt businesses were in the retail and wholesale space. These sectors are major contributors to GDP growth (about 14 per cent). According to investopedia, negative growth rates and economic contraction are also marked by a decrease in real income, higher unemployment, lower levels of industrial production, and a decline in wholesale or retail sales.

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