61 COVID-19 DEATHS BY MONTH END IF ...

MBABANE – Eswatini could record 61 COVID-19-related deaths by the end of July 2020.

However, the above figure is the projected worst case scenario, as it has been reported that if emaSwati follow all the preventative measures, only 15 coronavirus-related deaths could be recorded for the same period. This is according to projections made by the Ministry of Health through their epidemiologist, Nhlanhla Nhlabatsi. Nhlabatsi was speaking yesterday on Eswatini TV’s breakfast show, Kusile. He said there were three likely factors which increased transmission from six cases per day around June 1, 2020 to an average of 23 positive cases per day around June 24, 2020. The factors, according to Nhlabatsi, include the restoration of core business activities, opening of high-risk businesses such as salons and the temporary reopening of liquor stores.

Guidelines

He said if emaSwati continued to follow the Ministry of Health and World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines; with the projected cumulative total rate of growth of a slower average of two per cent per day, there would only be 994 total cases at the end of the month. He said of these, there would be about 103 requiring hospital level care while 37 of them would need intensive care. He said in that regard, the country would have managed to cope with the pandemic. Nhlabatsi said he believed emaSwati cared about their lives and safety and said at a moderate scale (four per cent per day) the total number of positive cases by the end of July would be 1 770 and those who would need hospitalisation could be 212. He explained that of the above, they projected that there would be 76 patients who would require intensive care while 30 deaths could be expected. He explained that the worst case scenario, if citizens did not follow health guidelines and not take the pandemic seriously, Eswatini’s positive cases would shoot up to 3 321 by end of July.

The epidemiologist said of these cases, 429 would require hospital level care and this would be worrisome because of the shortage of space in health facilities. He said if emaSwati would not follow the heath precautions then, according to their projections, 61 people could die. Nhlabatsi said this was not the time for citizens to relax and he was worried about some of the talk making rounds where emaSwati were making statements like; ‘we all have COVID-19 and let us just allow it to take its toll because it’s already here’. He said that was not the right attitude as not all members of the public had contracted the disease. Nhlabatsi further mentioned that it was critical for all emaSwati to follow the guidelines which included social distancing, washing of hands with soap and water or using alcohol-based sanitisers and the wearing of masks.

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