HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN IN LAST QUARTER

MBABANE – The country’s seasonal rainfall outlook for 2015/2016 shows a generally increased chance of Above Normal to Normal, Normal to Above and Normal to Below-Normal Rainfall over the  four regions of the country during the October-November-December (OND) 2015 period.

In a statement from Duduzile Masina, Director of the Swaziland Meteorological Services, it was said the January, February and March (JFM) 2016 period was likely to have the western part of the country receiving Below-Normal rainfall and only the eastern part of the country receiving normal with a bias to Above Normal and Above-to-Normal rainfall respectively.

She said using  statistical,  other  climate  prediction  schemes  and interpretation,  the  climate scientists  determined  likelihoods  of  above-normal,  normal  and  below-normal  rainfall  for  each of the four regions of Swaziland  for  overlapping  three-monthly  periods  that is  October-November-December  (OND), November-December-January (NDJ); December-January-February (DJF); and January February-March  (JFM).

“Above-normal  rainfall  is  defined  as  lying  within  the  wettest  third  of recorded (30 year, that is,  1971-2000    and  1981-2010 mean) rainfall amounts; below-normal is defined as within the driest third of rainfall amounts and normal is the middle third, centered on the  climatological  median.”

“It has been taken  into  account  oceanic  and  atmospheric factors  that  influence  our  climate  over  the SADC  region.  In  particular  a  strong  El  Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is favoured during the bulk of the rainfall season,” she said.

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