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PREPARE YOURSELF - COVID-19 IS HERE

01/06/2020 23:46:00 The Editor

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Sir,

When new viruses emerge on the world stage, alarm bells ring in the halls of international health authorities whose job it is to plan for such emergencies. The nightmare scenario they plan for is the reappearance of a killer influenza pandemic like the one that struck in 1918.

Between 1918 and 1920 Spanish flu killed between fifty and one hundred million people. That was when the world’s population was only a fifth of what it is today. In its first 6 months, COVID-19 has over 5.5 million confirmed infections and has killed over 350 000.

Many-times that many infections were mild and not reported. Some countries are not reporting their true death tolls. However, COVID-19 is still just getting started in Africa. Since 70 per cent of people worldwide are expected to get infected in the next two years, chances are you too will eventually get infected. Now is the time to learn how to survive this modern-day plague.

Appeared

The current coronavirus, technically named SARS-CoV-2 that causes the disease COVID-19 first appeared in December 2019; initially in the Wuhan, China seafood market. That market doubles as a live, ‘wet’ animal market with a variety of small and medium size animals for sale – dogs and rats, bats, and palm civet cats. This is the seventh coronavirus discovered to infect man.

First, how easily does the virus spread from one person to another? How contagious it is? Secondly, they want to know how lethal it is. What percentage of people it infects will die?

Because HIV is a lentivirus, a ‘slow’ virus, it took more than a decade to determine that HIV would kill almost 100 per cent of those it infects. Today HIV can practically be cured if people take their antiretroviral drugs as recommended.
Scientists have recently found that the virus is not so easily contracted by touching surfaces but spreads quite easily by people just talking to each other.

Spread

One of the fastest ways to spread it is by singing. At one ninety-minute choir rehearsal, one choir member spread it to all fifty other members of the choir. This is called a super-spreader event. When churches finally re-open they should ban singing or else the whole congregation will get infected. Also, people who travel in cars with the own family are less likely to get infected than people who cram into public transportation.

Eventually effective medications will significantly increase the chance of survival. But drug and vaccine development take years. Since no drugs have yet been found to help prevent COVID-19 disease.

According to Science journal, this major international pandemic will last two years or longer, perhaps through 2025. That is unless and until a vaccine is developed and distributed or herd immunity is achieved after 70 per cent of people have been infected. A vaccine might be available sometime in 2021, or maybe not.

Herd immunity should be achieved in 2022. After that SARS-CoV-2 will likely become a seasonable virus, like influenza, and will probably be with us decades into the future. However, it may evolve to become less virulent. infected. Luckily, COVID-19 is not as deadly. Because most people who get infected experience a very mild disease, like a common cold or a headache, most cases are unconfirmed and unreported. That makes it difficult to calculate just how deadly it is.

Tricky

COVID-19 is tricky. Most people show no symptoms at all for the first four or five days, giving the virus time to spread completely unnoticed. After that it initially causes a respiratory illness that is difficult to distinguish from the common cold. It starts as an upper respiratory infection with symptoms that may include stuffy nose, coughing, a sore throat, mild fever, headache or body aches, and shortness of breath.

High fever usually presents late in the disease, often after someone is already hospitalised. Most deaths occur in elderly patients, especially those with underlying health conditions including high blood pressure, obesity, diabetes, kidney disease and immune systems already weakened with uncontrolled HIV, TB, or cancer. Recently blood clots have surfaced as a major problem. These include clots that cause deaths in younger people through heart attacks and stroke, and many small clots in the lungs that damage breathing.

A disturbing aspect of this disease is that even after one has been in the hospital, recovered and discharged, after a few days the disease can return with a new wave. It is best to be aware of that and be prepared. Another interesting feature is that while many viruses leave a person with lifelong immunity after they have recovered from infection, COVID-19 does not seem to confer this.

Immunity

Scientists are trying to work out exactly what kind of immunity this illness leaves people with. It appears it may only provide people with immunity for about eight months, or perhaps up to two years.
How can one protect one’s health and the health of their family if there is no vaccine?

First, avoid other people who are sick. Wear a face mask, especially if you are sick or coughing. Wash your hands with soap or hand sanitiser frequently.
There is no specific effective drug so the best way to protect yourself is to make sure your immune system is functioning at its maximum potential. People can do that by taking selenium supplements

The first wave of COVID-19 disease will sweep around the world before there is any vaccine. Most governments are not prepared to handle this fast-developing health crisis.

When this virus reaches your community in the next few months you should want to maximise your immune system by taking one selenium tablet a day. ‘Be prepared’, is not just the Boy Scout motto. It is sage advice in any pandemic.

Howard Armistead