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LOCKDOWN GOOD FOR EMASWATI

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I believe that the lockdown is good for the country for a multitude of reasons.

The primary reason being that one of the confirmed cases contracted the virus despite having not traveled out of the country during the time that the pandemic gathered momentum globally. This is evidence that the virus may have begun spreading and that current quarantine and isolation methods have not been successful. The danger here is that the individual in the case of local transmission, because he/she had not left the country, was likely not self-quarantined as they did not know they had been exposed to the virus. This almost certainly confirms that they had contact with multiple people before ultimately showing symptoms and being tested and quarantined.

Perpetuated

Despite what is being perpetuated within the country, we know that the virus is contagious even when an individual with the virus is asymptomatic (showing no symptoms). The understanding is that the virus has an incubation period of about four to 14 days, which means an individual exposed to the virus will not show symptoms until at least four days after exposure have passed. This suggests that the patient in the case of local transmission likely spent a minimum of four days in the general public without knowledge that they may have been contagious.

Current data suggests that an infected individual will infect, on average, two other individuals. This suggests that every newly-infected individual, unless quarantined, will infect two others leading to exponential rates of infection. This information, along with what we believe to be a four to 14-day incubation period, suggests that we can expect Eswatini’s suspected and confirmed cases to spike within the next two weeks.

Example

If we look at countries like the USA as an example, it means there is not much we can do about the number of people already infected. The likely consequence is that they will begin showing symptoms, seek medical care and are safely and humanely quarantined.

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: Police discretion
Should the police use their discretion to stop COVID-19 spread?