Times Of Swaziland: ECONOMY FALLS 2.9% IN 2ND QUARTER

ECONOMY FALLS 2.9% IN 2ND QUARTER
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 BY ASHMOND NZIMA  on 30/09/2020 23:37:00


MBABANE – The country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter
of 2020 shrank by a notable 2.9 per cent, mainly as a result of the COVID-19
lockdown coming into effect during that period.
This follows back-to-back declines of 2.4 and 1.2 per cent in the previous two
quarters.  This is as per figures from the Ministry of Economic Planning and
development which were released yesterday. The  year-on-year  (Y-Y)  seasonally 
adjusted 2020  quarter two  showed a massive  decline  of  8.2 per cent  as
compared  to  a  growth  of  5.8 per cent in  the  previous  year  2019 (Q2).
growth
The quarter to quarter (Q-Q) seasonally adjusted growth which measures the rate
of change from subsequent quarters showed the drop of 2.9 per cent in 2020.
the primary sector which on average contributes about  nine per cent of the
total economy (GDP) showed  a decline of two per cent  in 2020 quarter two
year-on-year. The realised decline was due to a decrease in animal production,
forestry and mining.  The secondary sector which contributes about 35 per cent
to the economy indicated a decline of 24.5 per cent during the period under
review.  The decline in this sector was due to a decrease in manufacturing,
electricity, water and sewage and construction.
The  tertiary  sector, which contributes  about  51 per cent of the  entire
economic activities showed an overall decline of 1.2 per cent,  during the
second quarter of this year.  This decline was due to a decrease in industries 
that include wholesale and retail trade, transportation and storage,
accommodation and food service activities, professional,    scientific    and   
technical    activities and arts, entertainment and recreation.
Meanwhile, the quarterly National Accounts (QNA) series estimates have been
compiled using the  production  approach  starting  from  2013  quarter one  to 
2020  quarter two.
considerable
The quarterly time series are often characterised by considerable seasonal
variations which might complicate inter-period comparability. Therefore, the GDP
estimates are seasonally adjusted to make it possible to conduct an analysis of
the underlying change of economic activity between periods.
The back series quarterly estimates have been benchmarked to the 2019Annual
estimates released in September 2020.
Benchmarking technique help improve the quality  of  QNA  series,  by  making 
them  consistent  with Annual National Accounts (ANA)benchmarks  and  coherent 
with  the  short-term evolution  of  quarterly economic  indicators.   However,
the accuracy of QNA data ultimately depends on the accuracy of the annual
benchmarks and quarterly indicators.
Some economists felt the next quarter’s figures could be even worse, with
fears that that the country could plunge into deep recession.