Home | Feature | THAT ‘FIVE-MINUTE CONVERSATION’

THAT ‘FIVE-MINUTE CONVERSATION’

29/10/2020 00:42:00 BY CHRIS MORGAN

Font size:

FORMER British leader Winston Churchill was a huge inspiration to his people throughout World War II. Like millions of others, my friends and I spent a whole day watching Churchill’s State funeral on television in 1965.

A feature less well-known about him, however, was the legendary one-liners, of which possibly the most famous political one was; ‘The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter’. I do not hold a negative view about the concept of democracy. Far from it. But in practice, while morally right, it can be messy. And not the football version (LOL?). One wonders, as the American presidential election approaches, and contenders throw worrying dishonesty accusations at each other, whether democracy will give rise to the best outcome in that contest. And what exactly are the values of the ‘average voter’?

Two features appear to be common to most democracies. Firstly, voters do not change parties very readily. But in the USA there are many states known as ‘toss-ups’ and ‘leaners’, where a small shift in party choice among voters can make quite a difference. Because it isn’t a question of who wins the majority of individual votes, but who gains the most electoral college votes. California has 55, Texas 38 and Wyoming only three of those available votes. It’s winner-takes-all in most states.

One other feature of most democracies is that the conceptual grasp of political issues is weak – hence Churchill’s comment. A critical assessment of ability or past performance may not be within the grasp of the average voter. One wonders what proportion of the American public listened to – and analysed carefully – the recent pie-throwing presidential debates.

The perception of a candidate for most can be simply how they feel when they hear what that person has to say. There is no doubt that, if the candidate has the personality and self-belief that the public wants to see, the necessary impact can be made, especially when creating a good, secure feeling about their country and themselves.

Views

I am not about to take cheap shots at the current Republican President, Donald Trump, but let’s just say there have been a sufficient number of unconvincing views, explanations and denials, as well as concerns about past behaviour; views on climate change and playing the ‘fake news’ card, for it to be inconceivable that he should stand any real chance in the coming election.

The polls indicate that his opponent, Democrat Joe Biden, is way ahead. But a few months ago former President Barack Obama said there was a need for ‘new blood’ in the Democratic leadership. What does that say about Biden; and about the American political system? The US is a remarkable country in so many positive ways, but when leaders are chosen, the wrong values intervene. Money talks. And how can family dynasties feature so prominently, as they have, in the upper echelons of a democratic government? Is the race to get to the political summit really competitive? It baffles me when I consider how many truly gifted Americans I have come across in my career. Measured in terms of ability, integrity, intellectual strength and personal credibility, they would knock spots off these guys. But they don’t take the political road.

I am convinced that Trump won the election in 2016 because the American public was largely fed up with the ‘establishment’ – those with money and political influence in the system. It’s a country where 10 per cent of the people own 70 per cent of the wealth. Yet Trump is definitely in that 10 per cent group. There lay the first contradiction. But the public saw in him an unconventional candidate who was prepared to take on not only the Democrat opposition, but also the conventional branches of his own Republican party, while promising to create lots of jobs, restoring the past glory days of the steel and car manufacturing industries.

But Trump’s domestic and foreign credibility has taken a huge knock, such that sensible voting will place Biden as the next US president. But I wouldn’t write Trump off. I have been surprised, even shocked, to recently encounter one or two intelligent and worldly individuals who believe in him. He clearly has an appeal. America is suffering badly in the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is not finished. If enough people secretly admire Trump’s arrogant self-confidence – probably built from a hugely privileged upbringing rather than a self-created foundation of intellectual and emotional intelligence – he could get back in. And, remember, Biden is very much part of the Washington ‘establishment’ attacked by Trump in the 2016 election. If everyone gets sensible and confirms the validity of the current polls, then Biden will get in through a landslide. That is the logical outcome. But if asked to place a bet, I suggest you keep your money in your pocket.